When you make a bad all in move playing poker, the “punishment” when you get caught is a matter of luck (if there are more cards to come). Your result will probably be a lot different from your negative EV.
But it shouldn’t be that way in real life. I was reminded of this yet again when the malpracticing Nevada Doctor Disai is now possibly facing murder charges because one of those patients who he caused to have hepatitiis has now died from it..
But if this means he is now facing a much different sentence it doesn’t make sense. Anymore than it makes sense to have much greater punishments for murder as oppose to attempted murder.
These are rare cases. But what isn’t rare is this syndrome occurring in the case of drunken druving. Kill or hurt someone when you are driving drunk and get a few years in jail. Avoid that bad luck when you are driving drunk and get probation. The fairer sentences would be a few months in jail regardless.
Of course the reason this idea is not adopted has little to do with the distate of being lenient to a killer. Rather it is because society assuages its guilt for extreme leniency to drunk drivers by over punishing the few unlucky ones.